How long does your retirement fund last?

Education only

This tool is for education and illustration only. It is not financial, investment, tax, legal or insurance advice, and it is not a financial plan. Nothing on this page tells you what to do with your money. You make your own decisions, and you're responsible for them.

Who made this

Jay Adrian Tolentino is a UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) Registered Financial Influencer, #79, and the founder of Free Before Sixty Coaching FZE LLC. Jay is a financial coach and educator. He is not a licensed financial advisor, financial planner, portfolio manager, broker, insurance agent, tax consultant or lawyer in the UAE, the Philippines or any other country. He is not a Registered Investment Adviser in the US, does not hold an Australian Financial Services Licence, and is not regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. In the UK this is an unregulated service providing financial education. If you live outside the UAE, the rules where you live apply to you, and Jay is not licensed there.

No products, no recommendations

Free Before Sixty does not sell financial products and earns no commissions. This tool names no fund, index product, bank or provider. "Invested" is a historical research model of 60% stocks and 40% government bonds. It's a common convention in retirement research, not a recommended portfolio or allocation for you. The withdrawal rates shown are not recommended rates.

How the outcomes are grouped

Large surplus: money left at your plan-to age is more than you started with, in today's pesos. Comfortable: at least half is left. Barely made it: the money lasted, with less than half left. Almost made it: the money ran out in the last 5 years before your plan-to age. Failed in the middle: it ran out earlier than that. These groups are a simple way to read the results, not an official standard.

History, not a forecast

The chart replays real market history. It runs your plan through every past retirement year that has enough data and shows what would have happened. It is not a prediction and not a Monte Carlo simulation. The success rate is the share of past retirement years in which the money lasted. It is not the probability that your own plan will work. Future markets can be better or worse than anything in the record, including worse than the worst case shown.

What this tool leaves out

• Taxes on investment returns and on withdrawals, in any country.
• Fund fees, platform fees, advice fees, trading costs and rebalancing costs. Real-world costs lower results.
• Currency. World returns are measured in each country's own currency after its own inflation, not in Philippine pesos. Exchange rate movements are not included.
• Your own inflation. Your spending may rise faster or slower than general prices, especially healthcare and long-term care.
• Changes in spending. The tool assumes the same paycheck every year, raised with prices, taken once a year at the start of the year. Real spending changes over time.
• Other income, such as SSS or other pensions, rental income, business income, annuities or support from family.
• One-off costs, emergencies, medical events, gifts, debts and inheritances.
• Developed markets only. All 16 countries are developed markets. Philippine market history is too short to test a long retirement, so it is not in the data.
• Survivorship. The 16 countries are markets with long, unbroken records. Markets that closed or were wiped out are not in the data, which makes history look kinder than it was.

Saved in the bank

"Saved" assumes bank interest, after the Philippines' 20% final tax on deposit interest, only keeps up with prices, so the money earns nothing after inflation. Real deposit rates change and can fall below inflation.

Future pesos

"Future pesos" assumes prices rise 4% a year, an assumption close to the Philippines' average over recent decades. Actual inflation will differ.

How long you might live

The plan-to age and survival odds come from the UN life table for the whole Philippine population in 2023. Your own odds depend on your health, income, family history and where you live. Many people live longer than the table suggests, so the plan-to age is a starting point, not a limit. For couples, the tool suggests planning for the woman because women in the table live longer on average.

Accuracy

The data and calculations were built with care and checked against published research. They may still contain errors, and the data is used as published by its sources. If you spot an error, please report it.

Before you act

Before making any financial decision, speak with a professional who is licensed in the country where you live and who can look at your full situation.

How the numbers are calculated

Year one, you take the withdrawal rate times your retirement fund. Every year after, you take the same amount raised by inflation. Each withdrawal comes out at the start of the year. The rest earns that year's real return (after inflation) on a mix of 60% stocks and 40% government bonds, rebalanced every year. The world return for each year is the simple average of the countries with data that year: 7 countries in 1871, rising to all 16 by 1900. A retirement counts as a success when money is still left at the start of the year you reach your plan-to age. Every past start year with enough data is included. The results were rebuilt separately from the raw data to check them, and they line up with the published research below.

Sources

Data used in the tool

• Stock and bond returns, 16 countries, 1871 to 2020 (7 countries in the earliest years, all 16 from 1900). Columns used: stock total return, bond total return and consumer prices, from release 6 of the dataset: Jordà, Schularick and Taylor, Macrohistory Database (release 6).
• How that data was built: Jordà, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick and Taylor, "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870 to 2015", NBER Working Paper 24112, later in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.
• Survival odds and plan-to age: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024, Philippines, complete life table for 2023.
• Philippine inflation by year, used for the 4% future-pesos assumption (averages: 4.35% from 1995 to 2025, 3.70% over the last 20 years): World Bank, Inflation, consumer prices for the Philippines, via FRED.
• Philippine inflation in 2025, 1.7%: SunStar, "PH annual average inflation closes at 1.7 percent".
• Savings rates at Philippine digital banks, about 3% to 4.5% a year, used to check the "Saved" assumption: Fintech News Philippines, digital bank deposit rates compared, 2026.
• 20% final tax on bank deposit interest: CIMB Bank Philippines, "What is withholding tax?".

Research the method follows and was checked against

• William Bengen, "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data", Journal of Financial Planning, 1994. The original 4% study, using US history.
• Cooley, Hubbard and Walz, "Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable", AAII Journal, 1998. Known as the Trinity study.
• Wade Pfau, "An International Perspective on Safe Withdrawal Rates: The Demise of the 4 Percent Rule?", Journal of Financial Planning, 2010. Safe rates outside the US were lower.
• Anarkulova, Cederburg and O'Doherty, "The Safe Withdrawal Rate: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets". Safe rates across many developed countries.